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Vote of Confidence: Bitcoin Rallies on Election Shifts

Our market recap offers a concise overview of key blockchain categories and their recent price action within the broader market context, providing valuable insights for investors and industry practitioners.

Gabriel Selby, Mark Pilipczuk

• 2 min read
Vote of Confidence: Bitcoin Rallies on Election Shifts
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Key takeaways for the month

  • Fund Flows and Futures Drive Bitcoin Higher: Investors continued to focus on the upcoming U.S. presidential election, with former President Trump now holding a double-digit lead over Vice President Harris in decentralized prediction markets, although polling data still shows a much tighter race. This political backdrop, along with expectations of a potentially more accommodative regulatory framework and increased government spending, has been perceived positively for Bitcoin and the digital asset industry, contributing to the highest fund inflows ($5.4 billion) since February's spot Bitcoin ETF launch. Meanwhile, record-high CME futures open interest helped drive Bitcoin near its all-time high.
  • Mixed Results Amid Narrow Market Breadth: Performance breadth remained narrow, with most asset pairs finishing the month in negative territory. The CF Ultra Cap 5 Index led, rising +7.55%, followed by the CF Free-Float Broad Cap Index at +6.90% and the CF Diversified Large Cap Index at +4.68%. Meanwhile, the CF Smart Contract Platforms Index declined -5.49%, while both the CF Digital Culture Index and CF DeFi Index saw similar losses of approximately -7.65% and -7.71% respectively, indicating notable underperformance in these areas of the cryptocurrency market.
  • Meme Coins Lead While Smart Contract Platforms Lag: Dogecoin's DOGE token (+32.6%) and ApeCoin's APE token (+27.8%) were the top performers in October. DOGE surged on Musk-Trump campaign rumors, and APE rallied after a major cliff unlock of 15.6 million tokens, representing approximately 1.56% of total supply. Polygon's POL token (-20.9%) and Maker's MKR token (-19.9%) remained the worst performers. Both protocols experienced declining network activity, with notable drops in user engagement, transaction volume, and total deposit activity.
  • Institutional Interest Continues to Strengthen: Bitcoin recorded its highest monthly fund flows since February's spot ETF launch, attracting $5.4 billion in inflows, while Ether recorded minor outflows of $35 million. Total open interest for CME Bitcoin futures grew 9.9% from the previous month, reaching new all-time highs, while Ether futures saw an 11.9% increase.
  • Mining Revenue Tops $1B Post-Halving: An increase in both Bitcoin’s price and network fees contributed to a 25.6% growth in mining revenues in October. Of the miner rewards during the month, 4.6% came from fees, up from 1.7% in September. As on-chain activity rose in October, Bitcoin miners’ earnings exceeded $1 billion for the first time since the halving in April.
  • Solana Fees Surge as Ethereum Cools: In October, total fees paid on the Solana network rose 256% from the previous month to $117.1 million. MEV accounted for approximately 69.3% of the total fees, reflecting high demand for block space and suggesting that competitive, value-extractive activities continue to drive network usage. Meanwhile, total fees paid on the Ethereum network decreased by 16.4% from the previous month to $103.2 million. The average fee per interaction with the network declined by 11%, indicating reduced competition for Ethereum’s limited block space.
Source: CF Benchmarks, Bloomberg, as of October 31, 2024

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